As those who follow this blog know from past elections, I like to pay attention polls only when they make me happy. Seriously though, the news coming out of the miasma of convention time is good for Hillary Clinton, with polls pointing to a nice post-convention bounce that puts her back in the lead. We happy few who slogged both the RNC coverage and the Demo convention can only marvel that people compared the two gatherings at all. One was like a zombie apocalypse mob scene in which reason and sanity clawed to escape the savage hordes chewing out their guts, while the other was a well-choreographed ice ballet with only a few slips and skids at the start but plenty of triple and quadruple axels. (Sorry, I know it’s the summer Olympics coming up. I’ll find better metaphors by the time next week rolls around.)
Anyway, just taking a moment to check in on those post convention polls and the news is good. Here are a few screenshots from the windows I keep open on my iPhone.
The Pollster aggregator on HuffPo now shows a satisfying uptick for Clinton:
And the NYTimes also shows a narrower but similar split nationally between Clinton and Trump:
Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight have Clinton edging nearer toward a 70% chance of winning the election:
While even the red-trending Real Clear Politics are showing a shift in the numbers in Clinton’s favor:
Of course, the name of the game is “270 to win.” And here Clinton is holding a good lead over Trump in electoral votes according to electoral-vote.com:
I sometimes get hung up on how the trend for electoral votes flips down and up, but it’s worth checking the graphs for the last three elections because you can see that this year generally we have had a nice big split between the candidates and there has been little of the crazy volatility that marked the 2004 race.
Now before we get complacent, there are still plenty of ways the polling can shift in the next (Dear Lord) 98 days. Plus we should be paying attention to those Senate races that the Koch brothers will be funding. (More on that later in the month.)
In the mean time, Donald Trump is free to double or triple down on his narcissistic sociopathic tweets that imply that the parents of Humayan Khan are somehow in a war with him. I really am starting to believe there is such a thing as bad press.
And in other news, please enjoy Bill Maher’s hilarious rant on how Hillary can own the villainous persona she’s been saddled with. I want a Notorious H.R.C. T-shirt now. Internet, please make one for me.